Retail sales will increase 2.5-3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion in 2024, according to the National Retail Federation.
“The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF, during NRF’s fourth annual State of Retail & the Consumer press conference.
Shay noted that consumers are optimistic, if still cautious about spending. He said that the economy is improving but stressed that retailers that succeed offer convenience to consumers with affordable pricing.
The 2024 sales forecast is slightly lower than the 3.6% growth in 2023, when annual sales grew to $5.1 trillion. NRF projects full-year GDP growth of 2.3%, which is slightly lower than 2.5% in 2023. The 2024 forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%.
Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the NRF, said that rising home and stock prices in 2023 are likely driving greater consumer spending and this should continue this year. Even as consumers continue to feel the effects of inflation and interest rates, NRF consumer surveys hint at a favorable outlook and a willingness to spend.
